Indonesia – an emerging actor

Three months ago, the meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping took place during the G20 summit. On that occasion, Indonesian President Joko Widodo expressed his desire to play a mediating role in the face of the “risk of a new Cold War.” Before the incident involving Chinese balloons flying over American airspace, Indonesia warned of the danger of “dividing the world into several camps.” This was a striking statement for a country located at the junction of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, an unavoidable transit point for major commercial routes linking India and China—most notably the Strait of Malacca, through which more than two-thirds of global maritime oil and gas transport passes.

Having decided to build its new capital, “Nusantara,” on the island of Borneo, the archipelago has seen Jakarta, its current capital, overwhelmed by flooding caused by climate change, pollution, and rapid population growth. Having become a democracy—albeit an imperfect one—after years of dictatorship, Indonesia has managed to contain the Islamist threat, capitalise on its strategic position, and can now boast one of the most dynamic economies in the region. As the largest country in Southeast Asia and the world’s largest archipelago, it comprises more than 16,000 islands, covers 1.9 million square kilometres, and has a population of 270 million.

An economic and urban development

It was under the impetus of former president Suharto in the 1970s that the country moved closer to Western powers in order to attract capital and develop its infrastructure. The economy is primarily based on the exploitation of oil, gas, and especially coal, of which the country is the world’s second-largest exporter after the United States. It also relies on tourism, which accounts for 5% of GDP, on the shared control of the Strait of Malacca with Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, and on the exploitation of economic development zones linking Indonesia to these neighbouring states, as well as to Brunei and the Philippines. By exploiting and exporting its resources, Indonesia ranks first in GDP within ASEAN and tenth worldwide. With growth rates exceeding 5% since 2013, it is the only Southeast Asian country that is a member of the G20. However, due to its large population, its annual GDP per capita stands at just $12,300, still far behind that of its neighbours.

This economic rise has been accompanied by rapid urbanisation in recent years: 57% of the population lived in cities in 2019, compared to only 14.8% in 1961. This urbanisation is one of the causes of the many environmental challenges Indonesia faces, which could eventually weaken the country.

The chinese threat

In addition to environmental challenges, geopolitical concerns have also emerged. Indonesia’s large neighbour, China, has invested massively in the country as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in the sectors of health, education and research, industry, real estate, and energy and transport infrastructure. As a result, China has become Indonesia’s leading trading partner and its third-largest investor. However, China’s dominant position is also felt in Indonesia’s maritime space, where Xi Jinping claims rights over the Natuna Islands—an area rich in fish stocks and home to one of the largest natural gas fields in the region. Concerned by the regular incursions of Chinese vessels into their maritime territory, Indonesian authorities have strengthened surveillance and reinforced their military bases in the area.

A champion of multilateralism within asean

Feeling more threatened than assisted, Indonesia—refusing to choose sides on the Indo-Pacific chessboard—has diversified its alliances, notably through the purchase of Rafale fighter jets from France in early 2022. Holding the ASEAN chairmanship since 1 January 2023, it has become increasingly clear that the archipelago aims to mark its presidency through a firm commitment to defending regionalism and multilateralism. Its meetings have emphasised the importance of adhering to key principles, shared values, and norms enshrined in the United Nations Charter, the ASEAN Charter, the Declaration on the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN), the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (SEANWFZ), the 2011 Declaration of the East Asia Summit on the Principles for Mutually Beneficial Relations, and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. A strong commitment was also reaffirmed to preserve Southeast Asia as a zone free of nuclear weapons and all other weapons of mass destruction, in order to safeguard peace and security in the region.

Ambitions of mediation on the regional chessboard

As the world’s largest Muslim-majority country and a rising power, Indonesia stands at the crossroads of worlds in the Indo-Pacific region, where much of the Sino-American rivalry for global leadership is now unfolding. Through the G20, Indonesia has materialised its ambition to play a diplomatic mediation role, as it already does in the Burmese conflict, where Jakarta supports Myanmar’s pro-democracy forces and restricts arms deliveries to the regime that overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi. Southeast Asia is expected to become the centre of regional economic growth and a driver of global growth through strong cooperation—particularly in the sectors of food, energy, health, and finance—with Indonesia at the helm of the region’s most important organisation.